Large asset managers expect gold prices to reach at least 3,000 this year in the most optimistic scenario; even in the most pessimistic scenario, a key factor could help gold find bottom support.
UBS forecasts a "no landing" scenario for the U.S. economy, in which growth continues and inflation remains stable, breaking recession forecasts. UBS expects the election to trigger market volatility due to stronger-than-expected jobs data and GDP growth, but economic momentum and artificial intelligence trends will support stock market gains as the Federal Reserve heads towards rate cuts.
In the most probable U.S. election scenario, gold, the dollar, and U.S. stocks are all more likely to rise.
The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds extended an overnight decline, falling to 4.11 per cent in early Asian trading, its lowest level since May 2023, as markets increased bets on Fed rate cuts amid fears of a US recession. As of press time, interest rate futures showed that the market priced the Fed to cut interest rates by 87 BP this year, 13 BP away from a bet of four rate cuts this year. With three more meeting windows to cut interest rates this year, the probability of the Fed cutting int...
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: According to the potential scenario analysis, the time to cut interest rates is getting closer.
Citi: Our baseline scenario suggests that gold, silver, and copper are expected to rise another 5-10% in the next 0-3 months and 15-20% in the next 6-12 months.